展望2019：五大未來技術(shù)趨勢
來源：數(shù)據(jù)觀 時間：2018-12-13 15:42:47 作者：Ettienne Reinecke
Technology futures in 2019 and beyond
數(shù)據(jù)觀|王婕（譯）
【編者按】歲末已至，2019年即將到來，你和你所處的行業(yè)是否已準確把握了未來技術(shù)變革的趨勢？是否已做好迎接行業(yè)升級換代的心理準備？
身份管理將成為區(qū)塊鏈的一大殺手锏、商業(yè)模式將因數(shù)據(jù)價值而被重塑、健康大數(shù)據(jù)平臺將會進一步衍生......本文中，美國達科公司首席技術(shù)官Ettienne Reinecke從五個方面給出了他的判斷。
Ettienne Reinecke
△Trend 1: Easier access will accelerate adoption of game-changing technologies
趨勢一：便捷訪問將加速顛覆性技術(shù)落地
Until now, our industry has spoken about innovative technologies somewhat theoretically, without providing a clear picture of how these powerful new innovations will be used. This has left people without a solid understanding of how they will ultimately manifest in our work and personal lives. Think analytics, machine learning, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and containers, just to name a few.
截至目前，我們業(yè)內(nèi)在某種程度上談?wù)摰亩际抢碚撋系膭?chuàng)新技術(shù)，沒有提供如何利用這些強大創(chuàng)新的清晰藍圖，人們對于這些技術(shù)終將如何體現(xiàn)在工作和個人生活中缺乏透徹的了解。就這一點，你只要想想分析學、機器學習、人工智能、區(qū)塊鏈和容器就知道了，而這只是其中的幾個例子。
That’s starting to change. The application of game-changing technologies is becoming more pervasive and their adoption is growing steadily. I believe that they’ll be firmly embedded in many of the core processes and technologies we use, within the next 3-5 years.
這種情況正在開始改變。顛覆性技術(shù)的應(yīng)用越來越普遍，它們被采用的頻率也在穩(wěn)步增長。我相信，在未來3-5年內(nèi)，這些技術(shù)將被深植到多數(shù)核心流程和科技中。
Last year, I predicted that artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, robotics, and virtual and augmented reality would start to converge to deliver compelling outcomes. Over the last year, we’ve seen this trend coming to fruition and I expect it to accelerate.
去年，我預(yù)測人工智能(AI)、機器學習、機器人技術(shù)、虛擬現(xiàn)實（VR）和增強現(xiàn)實（AR）技術(shù)的匯聚將產(chǎn)生令人矚目的成果。在過去一年里，我們已經(jīng)看到了這一趨勢的實現(xiàn)，我預(yù)期它還會加速。
One reason that adoption is increasing, is an improved understanding of how and where to use such technologies. And of course, we’re also seeing growth in the number of skilled people who know how to leverage them.
這些技術(shù)被廣泛采用的原因之一，就是大眾對于何時何式使用這種技術(shù)有了更好的理解。當然，我們還看到，越來越多的技術(shù)人才懂得了如何利用這些技術(shù)。
Easier access is already accelerating adoption of key technologies
便捷訪問助推關(guān)鍵技術(shù)的運用
Another important contributing factor for more rapid adoption is improved access to such technologies, both from a platform and cost perspective. The hyperscale cloud providers at an infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), platform-as-a-service (PaaS), and software-as-a service (SaaS) level, such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Salesforce are starting to embed these capabilities into their offerings, or making them available as a platform to be used by third parties.
另一個促使新技術(shù)迅速被采用的重要因素是此類技術(shù)的獲取途徑在平臺和成本方面得到了改進?；A(chǔ)設(shè)施即服務(wù)(IaaS)、平臺即服務(wù)(PaaS)和軟件即服務(wù)(SaaS)級別(如Google、Microsoft、Amazon和Salesforce)的超大規(guī)模云服務(wù)提供商開始將這些功能嵌入到它們的產(chǎn)品中，或者將它們作為可供第三方使用的平臺。
This is helping businesses overcome the hurdles they’ve faced in the past. Now they can get access to game-changing technologies without having to invest in building their own algorithms and platforms. Instead they can focus on how to exploit these technologies and speed up the rate at which they get business value.
這有助于企業(yè)克服過去面臨的障礙?，F(xiàn)在，他們無需投資構(gòu)建自己的算法和平臺，就可以使用這些顛覆性技術(shù)。同時有別于此，他們還可以專注于如何開發(fā)這些技術(shù)，并加快其獲取商業(yè)價值的速度。
Bots and robotic process automation are already becoming part of our everyday working and personal lives. It’s relatively simple to create a bot that will access all a company’s sales support systems, and provide a consolidated dashboard. These dashboards can be unique to each customer service employee – paving the way for more informed decisions. This can now be taken to the next level, for example, by leveraging an AI application like Salesforce’s Einstein. This tool can make recommendations and predictions on next actions and outcomes based on unique business processes and customer data. Individuals simply can’t access these kinds of insights without this level of assistance. It’s changing the way we work, the service levels we can provide, and our effectiveness.
自動程序和機器人過程自動化已經(jīng)成為我們?nèi)粘９ぷ骱蛡€人生活的一部分。創(chuàng)建一個可以訪問公司所有銷售支持系統(tǒng)，并提供統(tǒng)一控制面板的自動程序相對簡單。這些控制面板對于每個客戶服務(wù)人員都是獨一無二的——為他們做出更為明智的決策鋪平了道路?，F(xiàn)在可以將這一工具提升到下一個層次，例如利用Salesforce的Einstein這樣的人工智能應(yīng)用程序。該工具可以基于獨有的業(yè)務(wù)流程和客戶數(shù)據(jù)，對下一步操作和結(jié)果提出建議和預(yù)測。沒有這種程度的幫助，個人根本無法獲得這類深刻洞見。它正在改變我們的工作方式、服務(wù)水平，以及效率。
Bots have been used in omnichannel customer service centres for some years now, but even this world is being re-engineered by the introduction of AI algorithms that can assess the emotive state of a customer interaction. This is achieved by assessing words, phrases, tone, or pitch across multiple channels, either spoken or written, to assess the emotional state of the customer, in real time. The moment a negative emotive interaction is identified, appropriate action can be taken, either by changing the channel or method of interaction.
自動程序已經(jīng)在全渠道的客戶服務(wù)中心使用了好幾年，但即便是我們所處的這個世界，也因為引入了能夠評估客戶交互情緒狀態(tài)的人工智能算法而正在被重塑。這是通過評估單詞、短語、音調(diào)或音高、通過口頭或書面的多種渠道，實時評估客戶的情緒狀態(tài)來實現(xiàn)的。一旦消極情緒主導下的互動被確認， 就可以通過改變相互交流的渠道或方法來采取適當?shù)男袆印?/p>
3D printing has also been around for some time, mainly based on resin or epoxy-based materials, but we’ve seen this move quickly to metal-based 3D printing, which is opening up a multitude of new use cases. General Electric is one of the trailblazers of 3D metal printing. They’re already using it to print fuel nozzles for jet engines. Nike are using it to adapt the spikes on their running shoes to ensure the most appropriate strength, fit, and flexibility required by the customer, depending on what surface they plan to wear them.
3D打印也已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了一段時間了，它主要基于樹脂或環(huán)氧材料而實現(xiàn)，但我們已經(jīng)看到，3D打印很快便轉(zhuǎn)向了基于金屬的3D打印，并已有許多新案例出現(xiàn)。通用電氣(General Electric )是3D金屬打印的先驅(qū)之一，他們已經(jīng)在用它打印噴氣發(fā)動機的燃料噴嘴。Nike也正在依據(jù)不同的鞋面料來使用3D金屬打印調(diào)整他們跑鞋上的鞋釘，以確保達到最合適的強度、合適度以及客戶所需的靈活性。
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△Trend 2: Identity will emerge as the killer app for blockchain
趨勢2:身份將成為區(qū)塊鏈的殺手級應(yīng)用
There’s been a massive amount of investment in blockchain in the last 12 months. In the financial and capital markets, blockchain-based platforms are rapidly starting to dominate. We’re now starting to see this extend to additional settlement areas such as equity trading. There’s also been a proliferation of blockchain-based smart contract platforms across multiple vertical segments, both in the private and public sectors.
在過去的12個月里，區(qū)塊鏈行業(yè)涌入了大量的投資。在金融和資本市場，區(qū)塊鏈平臺正迅速開始占據(jù)主導地位。如今我們可以看到這一趨勢正延伸到股票交易等其他結(jié)算領(lǐng)域，基于區(qū)塊鏈的智能合同平臺也在私營和公共部門的多個垂直領(lǐng)域迅速發(fā)展。
The market is starting to see ecosystems of value emerging around the blockchain platform vendors, such as R3/Corda, Ripple, and Ethereum. Platform providers are beginning to align to verticals or specialised applications, and it’s interesting to observe the emergence of ecosystem incubators developing additional applications for a specific vertical, on a particular platform.
區(qū)塊鏈平臺供應(yīng)商周圍的價值生態(tài)系統(tǒng)開始嶄露頭角，如R3/Corda、Ripple和Ethereum（以太坊）。平臺提供商開始向垂直或?qū)ｉT的應(yīng)用程序靠攏，觀察生態(tài)系統(tǒng)孵化器在特定平臺上為垂直領(lǐng)域開發(fā)額外應(yīng)用程序不失為一件趣事。
I believe identity management will emerge as one of the killer apps for blockchain in the next 3-5 years. It’s a topic that’s never quite been resolved in our industry. Most of the major cybersecurity incidents that have occurred in the last few years have involved breaches of people’s personal identity information.
我相信在未來3-5年，身份管理將成為區(qū)塊鏈的殺手級應(yīng)用之一。在我們這個行業(yè)，這是一個從來都沒有完全被解決的議題。在過去幾年發(fā)生的大部分重大網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全事件中，都涉及到對個人身份信息的侵犯。
I believe that moving identity management into a blockchain environment could offer a solution to many of the current challenges, and in addition, open an entire new value chain, centred on identity. The high levels of encryption and the dispersed nature of data in a distributed ledger, are inherent to a blockchain. This immediately changes the level of cyber safety that can be offered, certainly solving one problem.
我相信，將身份管理遷移到區(qū)塊鏈環(huán)境中可以解決當前的許多挑戰(zhàn)，而且，還可以打開一個以身份為中心的全新價值鏈。在分布式賬本中，高級加密性和數(shù)據(jù)的分散性是區(qū)塊鏈與生俱來的特點，這一特性毫無疑問地改變了可以達到的網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全級別，也就理所當然地解決了前文所提到的問題。
Consider the other value chains that could emerge … perhaps allowing individuals to truly own and control their identity and its attributes, and selectively allowing the use of such attributes by third parties in transactions or interactions. This could fundamentally change how we conduct financial transactions or even sensitive interactions regarding our health ─ all attributes relating to our identity.
設(shè)想一下這條可能出現(xiàn)的其他價值鏈……這也許將允許個人真正擁有和控制他們的身份及其屬性，并且可以選擇性地允許第三方在交易或交互中使用這些屬性。這將從根本上改變我們進行金融交易的方式，甚至參與有關(guān)我們健康方面的敏感交互——所有特質(zhì)都與我們的身份有關(guān)。
These models have the potential to extend into much wider ecosystems, and drive monetisation of data related to identity attributes. Take a simple example: a high school might become an important third-party validator of the educational level that their students achieved ─ an attribute of somebody’s identity. Allowing the school to participate in a transaction, in return for a small payment, will, for the first time, enable the school to monetise data that they collect and own, and open up a revenue stream they never considered before.
這些模式有可能擴展到更為廣泛的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，并推動與身份屬性相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)實現(xiàn)貨幣化。舉一個簡單的例子:一所高中可能同時也是一個驗證學生受教育水平的重要第三方驗證程序─這涉及到了某個個體的身份屬性。如果允許學校參與交易來換取一小筆款項，將首次使學校能夠?qū)⑺麄兪占蛽碛械臄?shù)據(jù)貨幣化，并開辟一條他們從未考慮過的收入來源。
There’s no doubt that blockchain-based innovation will expand and accelerate over the next 3-5 years.
毫無疑問，基于區(qū)塊鏈的創(chuàng)新將在未來3-5年內(nèi)擴張和加速。
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△Trend 3: Companies will learn how to extract value from data, while respecting privacy
趨勢3:企業(yè)將會學習如何在尊重隱私的前提下從數(shù)據(jù)中提取價值
Data value management is a topic that will dominate our industry in the next 3-5 years.
數(shù)據(jù)價值管理是未來3-5年將主導我們行業(yè)的一個主題。
Today, almost every company has access to large volumes of data. But it’s what they do with that data that will define the business models of the future. This isn’t necessarily a new statement, but the context and impact has escalated dramatically. Current business models will be re-engineered by the value of the data that’s generated by existing activities. The value of the data will supersede the value of traditional revenue activities ─ an interesting concept in its own right.
如今，幾乎每家公司都可以訪問大量數(shù)據(jù)，但他們對這些數(shù)據(jù)的處理方式將決定其未來的商業(yè)模式。這未必是一個新的論斷，但這一論斷提出的背景和影響已急劇升級。當前的商業(yè)模式將根據(jù)現(xiàn)有活動生成的數(shù)據(jù)的價值而被重塑，數(shù)據(jù)的價值將取代傳統(tǒng)商業(yè)創(chuàng)收活動的價值—— 這本身就是一個有趣的概念。
Let’s take a transport operator as an example. Traditionally they’ve generated their revenue from passengers’ fares. But as they implement more intelligent systems, and connect the data elements to one another, the data becomes the primary source of value, not the transport service. They know who their passengers are, where they’re going and coming from, and when. If they collect and enrich this data they could monetise it by making it available to a host of other businesses for more targeted service delivery–at a premium. The result? An entirely new business model and revenue stream.
讓我們以運輸運營商為例：一般來說他們的收入大多來自乘客的票費，然而一旦他們運行更為智能的系統(tǒng)并將數(shù)據(jù)元素彼此連接起來，數(shù)據(jù)就成為了主要的價值來源，而不是運輸服務(wù)本身。他們能夠知道他們的乘客是誰，他們從哪里來、要往何處去以及何時出發(fā)。如果他們能夠收集并不斷豐富這些數(shù)據(jù)，他們就可以通過向其它企業(yè)提供這些數(shù)據(jù)來實現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)的貨幣化，從而提供更有針對性的服務(wù)以及收取更高的費用。采取這一模式的結(jié)果是什么？毫無疑問，他們將收獲全新的商業(yè)模式和收入來源。
The concept of data value management will become one of the most important investment areas over the next 3-5 years due to its monetary value potential, but it will also become one of the major driving forces of investment to create more data. Businesses have strived to become more digital in nature, but those that excel in managing the value of their data, re-engineering their business models, and establishing new revenue streams, will become the true digital business heroes of the future.
數(shù)據(jù)價值管理的概念由于其貨幣價值潛力將成為未來3-5年最重要的投資領(lǐng)域之一，同時它也將成為投資創(chuàng)造更多數(shù)據(jù)的主要驅(qū)動力之一。雖然許多企業(yè)已經(jīng)努力使其在本質(zhì)上變得更加數(shù)字化，但那些擅長管理數(shù)據(jù)價值、能夠重建商業(yè)模式和收入來源的企業(yè)，將成為未來真正的數(shù)字化商業(yè)英雄。
Monetisation of data must respect privacy
數(shù)據(jù)貨幣化必須尊重隱私
Of course, ensuring that people’s personal particulars aren’t shared illegally is critical for any business considering going down this path. Regulations regarding data privacy continue to grow, both at a country and vertical industry level. Fortunately, the increasing interest in data value management is spurring massive innovation to address the issue of privacy.
當然，確保人們的個人信息不被非法共享對于任何考慮走這條路的企業(yè)來說都是至關(guān)重要的。在國家和垂直行業(yè)級別，有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)隱私的法規(guī)數(shù)量在不斷增長。幸運的是，人們對數(shù)據(jù)價值管理越來越感興趣，這也促使人們進行大規(guī)模創(chuàng)新，以解決隱私問題。
Data sources are growing, the granularity of the data itself is improving, and because of this the potential value that can be extracted is growing even faster. The increasing challenge is how to derive insights from disparate and distributed data sources, without infringing regulatory or basic confidentiality guidelines. Anonymised data analytics at scale is an ongoing challenge and finding ways to gain the rich insights without sharing source data or causing breaking the law will become barriers to growth, if not solved.
數(shù)據(jù)源在增長，數(shù)據(jù)本身的粒度（指數(shù)據(jù)倉庫中數(shù)據(jù)的細化和綜合程度）也在改進，因此可以挖掘的潛在價值增長得更快。如今人們所面臨的越來越大的挑戰(zhàn)是如何在不違反法規(guī)或基本保密準則的情況下，從不同的分布式數(shù)據(jù)源獲取信息。大規(guī)模匿名數(shù)據(jù)分析是一個持續(xù)的挑戰(zhàn)，如果不解決這一問題，找到可以在不共享源數(shù)據(jù)或不導致違法的情況下獲取豐富信息的方法，這一挑戰(zhàn)將成為數(shù)據(jù)價值增長的阻礙。
Working with our parent company, NTT, we’re fortunate beneficiaries of deep R&D investment in this area, and have access to a secure computation platform known as San-Shi. It uses secret sharing and secure multi-party computational principles to allow data scientists to aggregate and analyse massive distributed data sets without ever revealing the source data to the analyst. Judging by the interest we’ve received in this solution, we believe this is an area of increasing importance to the wider business community, as they strive to unlock the value of data.
通過與我們的母公司NTT合作，我們有幸成為了這一領(lǐng)域深度投研的受益者，并能夠訪問一個名為San-Shi的安全計算平臺。它使用秘密共享和安全的多方計算原則，允許數(shù)據(jù)科學家聚合和分析大量分布式數(shù)據(jù)集，而無需向分析人員透露源數(shù)據(jù)。根據(jù)我們對這一解決方案的興趣來判斷，我們相信對于更廣泛的商界來說，這是一個越來越重要的領(lǐng)域，因為他們正在努力解鎖數(shù)據(jù)的價值。
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△Trend 4: The Internet of Everything will change our lives for the better
趨勢4:物聯(lián)網(wǎng)將使我們的生活變得更美好
The number of things connected to the Internet in 2008 exceeded the number of people on earth. By 2020, it’s expected that 50 billion things will be connected, and this goes way beyond ‘things’, it becomes ‘everything’ or simply the Internet of Everything (IoE). The IoE ecosystem will connect the online and physical worlds in ways we’ve never imagined and society will become increasingly technology-driven as a result. There’s not a part of our lives that will go untouched. Automation will take on a new meaning, data value management will be accentuated by the richness of data, and AI will ingest the data to drive intelligent insights and outcomes we’ve never seen before.
2008年，連接到互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上的事物的數(shù)量超過了地球上的人數(shù)。到2020年，預(yù)計將有500億件事物被連接起來，而這已經(jīng)遠遠超過了“事物”的范疇，它將成為“一切”，或者簡單來說也就是“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)”(IoE)。物聯(lián)網(wǎng)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)將以我們從未想象過的方式連接網(wǎng)絡(luò)和物理世界，也正因為如此，社會的發(fā)展將越來越受技術(shù)驅(qū)動。我們的生活中沒有哪一部分是一成不變的，自動化將被賦予新的意義，數(shù)據(jù)價值管理將因為數(shù)據(jù)的日益豐富而越顯突出，同時，人工智能將吸收這些數(shù)據(jù)來推動生成我們從未領(lǐng)略過的智能洞察和成果。
The human API will evolve
Human API 平臺的演化
The IoE will encompass every area of our lives, transforming the way we provide healthcare, and the way we live, work and learn. It will re-engineer our lives through what we increasingly refer to as the‘human API’enabling us to interface with various connected systems in ways that are hard to anticipate. The scope of biometrics will expand from what we understand today, to include gestures, emotions, expressions, and many more aspects, triggering automated system reactions to complement, ease, or enhance our activities.
物聯(lián)網(wǎng)將涵蓋我們生活的每一個領(lǐng)域，改變我們提供醫(yī)療保健的方式，以及我們的生活、工作和學習方式。它將通過我們?nèi)找骖l繁提到的“Human API”（美國知名醫(yī)療大數(shù)據(jù)平臺）重塑我們的生活，使我們能夠以難以預(yù)料的方式與各種連接系統(tǒng)進行交互。生物識別技術(shù)的范圍將從我們今天所了解的內(nèi)容擴展到包括手勢、情緒、表情和許多其他方面，并能夠觸發(fā)自動系統(tǒng)做出反應(yīng)，以補充、減輕或增強我們的活動。
Leading technology innovators are already finding life-changing use cases for the IoE and human API. Dimension Data recently worked with NTT R&D and Deakin University in Australia on a project that uses virtual reality, biometric sensors, wearables, and data analytics to transform the way that firefighters are trained.
領(lǐng)先的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新者已經(jīng)在為物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和人類API尋找可以改變生活的可能案例。達科公司（Dimension Data）最近同NTT R&D（日本最大移動運營商NTT研究與開發(fā)部門）以及澳大利亞迪肯大學(Deakin University)合作開發(fā)了一個項目，該項目使用虛擬現(xiàn)實、生物識別傳感器、可穿戴設(shè)備和數(shù)據(jù)分析來改變消防員的培訓方式。
This innovation, known as the FLAIM Trainer?, reproduces all the forces and elements that impact a firefighter, connecting the virtual and the physical. It allows firefighters to train for dangerous scenarios that are difficult, expensive, and environmentally harmful to reproduce in reality. It incorporates a patented digital bio-sensing fabric developed by NTT, called Hitoe?, which provides real-time data on firefighters’ vital signs such as heart rate, stress, and fatigue. When aggregated, this data allows instructors to assess a trainee’s fitness and mental state to fight in any given fire scenario.
這種被稱為FLAIM Trainer?的創(chuàng)新（澳大利亞迪肯大學智能系統(tǒng)研究所設(shè)計的一套VR火災(zāi)培訓體驗），不僅再現(xiàn)了所有作用力和因素對一名消防員的影響,還將虛擬空間和物理空間連接在了一起。它允許消防隊員在危險的情況下進行訓練，而這些情況通常在現(xiàn)實中很難重現(xiàn)，因其代價昂貴且對環(huán)境有害。它集成了一個由NTT自主研發(fā)并已成功申請專利的數(shù)字生物傳感器——Hitoe?，這一產(chǎn)品能夠提供消防隊員生命體征的實時數(shù)據(jù)，如心率、壓力和疲勞程度。這些數(shù)據(jù)匯總后，可以幫助教練來評估學員在任何給定火災(zāi)場景下的健康狀況和心理狀態(tài)。
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△Trend 5: Disruption will drive consolidation among tech vendors
趨勢5:變革將推動技術(shù)供應(yīng)商之間的整合
I foresee a period of unprecedented change and disruption for major technology vendors driven by factors largely outside of their control. Not only are technology consumption patterns changing, but how innovation is driven, products are developed, and intellectual property is shared in an opensource and free manner. All of this is driving disruptions that are hard to predict or manage.
我判斷，技術(shù)供應(yīng)商們將經(jīng)歷一段主要由不可控因素驅(qū)動的前所未有的變革和混亂時期。不僅技術(shù)消費模式會改變，創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動、產(chǎn)品開發(fā)、知識產(chǎn)權(quán)共享的方式也會改變。所有這些因素都導致了難以預(yù)測或應(yīng)付的顛覆局面。
The emergence of new technology giants, with very different business models, is driving some of this change – and shifting the landscape at a scale not seen before. The increasing market dominance of the FAANGs – a term coined to describe Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google – and a resurgent Microsoft, are leading this disruption.
擁有截然不同商業(yè)模式的新興科技巨頭的出現(xiàn)，在一定程度上加速了這種變化，并以前所未有的規(guī)模改變了格局。市場主導地位日益增長的“FAANG”（臉書、蘋果、亞馬遜、奈飛和谷歌——五家科技巨頭經(jīng)?！巴颉背霈F(xiàn)被統(tǒng)稱為FAANG），外加一個復(fù)興的微軟，正在引領(lǐng)這種顛覆。
FAANGs don’t buy their technologies from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like HP, Dell, Cisco, or IBM. Instead they source technologies or components from original device manufacturers (ODMs), write their own code and build their own solutions. This diminishes the addressable market for OEMs. To add a further challenge, these companies are making their source code available in opensource communities, such as the Open Networking Foundation and the Open Compute Project, allowing those enterprises that have the resources and funding to follow suit, reducing the total addressable market for OEMs even further. Now add new consumption patterns, such as IaaS and SaaS offered at scale, and the addressable market reduces even further.
五大科技巨頭不從像惠普、戴爾、思科或IBM這樣的原始委托生產(chǎn)制造商(OEM，Original Entrusted Manufacture )購買技術(shù)，相反，他們從原始設(shè)計制造商(ODM，Original Design Manufacturer)那里獲得技術(shù)或組件，編寫自己的代碼并構(gòu)建自己的解決方案。這削弱了原始委托生產(chǎn)制造商的潛在市場。為了進一步強化挑戰(zhàn)，這些公司還在開放網(wǎng)絡(luò)基金會和開放計算項目等開放源代碼社區(qū)中提供源代碼，從而允許那些擁有資源和資金的企業(yè)效仿，進一步減少原始委托生產(chǎn)制造商的總目標市場。現(xiàn)在，如果再添加上像規(guī)?；腎aaS和SaaS這樣的新的消費模式，其總目標市場將進一步減少。
FAANGs are also simply out-innovating the more established players. Google and Microsoft are embedding advanced innovation into all their products and services, at no additional charge, making it increasingly hard for narrowly-focused technology companies to compete. Applications are enriched with analytics, machine learning, AI, and the application stack itself, to provide additional value, depending on the use case. A good example is the collaboration stack: companies such as Microsoft and Google provide all the collaboration applications, but include additional functionality such as natural speech recognition, speech-to-text, digital recording, streaming, and fully-programmable interfaces to extend the value chain. This is provided in a consumption-based model – at a fraction of the cost of the more traditional approach, making it tough to match.
五大科技巨頭的創(chuàng)新度也遠遠超過了那些更成熟的參與者。谷歌和微軟正將先進的創(chuàng)新成果植入其所有的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)中且不收取任何額外費用，這使得專注于特定領(lǐng)域的科技公司越來越難以與之競爭。應(yīng)用程序通過分析、機器學習、AI和應(yīng)用程序堆棧使自身得以豐富，并進一步根據(jù)使用案例提供了額外的價值。協(xié)作棧就是一個很好的例子:像微軟和谷歌這樣的公司除了提供所有的協(xié)作應(yīng)用程序，還包括了一些額外的功能，例如自然語音識別、語音轉(zhuǎn)文本、數(shù)字錄音、流媒體和完全可編程的接口，以擴展其價值鏈。這些都是基于消費模型而提供的，且成本較傳統(tǒng)技術(shù)只算得上鳳毛麟角，因此其他科技公司很難與他們較量。
The rise of the FAANGs will cause a shake down of the OEMs
五大巨頭的崛起將對原始委托生產(chǎn)制造商造成威脅
The effect of all this on OEMs will be significant, and in some market areas OEMs are already competing for roughly 40% of the total addressable market. As time goes on we’ll have a lot of big fish competing in a smaller and smaller pond – and I foresee that the big fish will start eating the small fish… I believe that the vendor landscape is going to undergo a metamorphosis over the next 3-5 years and those that emerge, will look very different.
五大巨頭的崛起對原始設(shè)備制造商產(chǎn)生的影響將是顯著的，在相關(guān)市場領(lǐng)域，原始設(shè)備制造商已經(jīng)在爭奪大約40%的潛在市場。隨著時間的推移，我們會看到許多“大魚”在一個越來越小的“池塘”里競爭——而且我斷言“大魚”會開始吃“小魚”………我相信在未來的3 - 5年中，整個供應(yīng)商行業(yè)將經(jīng)歷一次蛻變——而蛻變之后，整個行業(yè)將煥然一新。
文章精簡圖文如下：
注：《展望2019：這五大未來技術(shù)趨勢你get到了嗎》來源于Dimension Data(點擊查看原文)。數(shù)據(jù)觀編譯/王婕，轉(zhuǎn)載請注明譯者和來源。
責任編輯：李蘭松